Peak Oil: The Four Stages Of A New Idea

Ugo Bardi

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Peak Oil: The Four Stages Of A New Idea

机译：石油高峰：新思路的四个阶段

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The present paper reviews the reactions and the path of acceptance of the theory known as "peak oil". The theory was proposed for the first time by M.K. Hubbert in the 1950s as a way to describe the production pattern of crude oil. According to Hubbert, the production curve is "bell shaped" and approximately symmetric. Hubbert's theory was verified with good approximation for the case of oil production in the United States that peaked in 1971, and is now being applied to the worldwide oil production. It is generally believed that the global peak of oil production ("peak oil") will take place during the first decade of the 21st century, and some analysts believe that it has already occurred in 2005 or 2006. The theory and its consequences have unpleasant social and economical implications. The present paper is not aimed at assessing the peak date but offers a discussion on the factors that affect the acceptance and the diffusion of the concept of "peak oil" with experts and with the general public. The discussion is based on a subdivision of "four stages of acceptance", loosely patterned after a sentence by Thomas Huxley.

机译：本文回顾了被称为“峰值油”的理论的反应和接受途径。该理论是由M.K.哈伯特（Hubbert）在1950年代描述了原油的生产方式。根据哈伯特的说法，生产曲线是“钟形的”并且近似对称。对于在1971年达到顶峰的美国石油生产，已经很好地验证了Hubbert的理论，现在将其应用于全球石油生产。人们普遍认为，石油生产的全球高峰（“峰值石油”）将在21世纪的前十年发生，并且一些分析家认为，这种情况已经在2005年或2006年发生过。该理论及其后果令人不快社会和经济影响。本文的目的不是评估高峰期，而是与专家和公众讨论影响“峰值油”概念被接受和传播的因素。讨论的基础是“接受的四个阶段”的细分，在托马斯·赫x黎（Thomas Huxley）的一句话之后，以宽松的方式描述了这一点。

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《Energy》 |2009年第3期|p.323-326|共4页
作者
Ugo Bardi;
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作者单位

Dipartimento di Chimica, Universita di Firenze, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), Polo Scientifico di Sesto Fiorentino, Via della Lastruccia 3, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Fi), Italy;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类能源与动力工程;
关键词
peak oil; hubbert's peak; crude oil; resource depletion;

机译：石油峰值;哈伯特峰;原油;资源枯竭;
入库时间 2022-08-18 00:21:07

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3. IEA: US Oil Peak Will Return Mideast to Central Role [J] . Peter Kemp International Oil Daily . 2013,第Nova13期

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Peak Oil: The Four Stages Of A New Idea

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