Energy consumption and human development: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model

摘要

In this paper we investigate the co-movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption as well as electricity consumption and the HDI (human development index) using as a proxy of human well-being and by including energy prices as an additional variable, in fifteen developing countries for the period 1988 to 2008. Recently developed tests for the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration, and panel-based error correction models are employed. The empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis in the short-term, regards total energy or electricity consumption, implying an absence of causality running in either direction. In the short term, energy as well as electricity consumption has a neutral effect on the HDI. In the long-term the findings provide a clear support of a negative cointegration relationship between energy consumption and the HDI. While a positive cointegration relationship exists between electricity consumption and HDI. A 1% increase in per capita energy consumption reduces the HDI by 0.8% and, a 1% increase in per capita electricity consumption increases the HDI by 0.22%. Moreover, a 1% increase in energy price reduces the HDI by around 0.11%. This study thus provides empirical evidence of long-run and causal relationships between energy consumption and the HDI for our sample of countries; supporting the assertion that lack or limited access to modern energy services could hamper economic and human development prospects of countries and underpins all the MDGs (millennium development goals).