The selection of key technologies by the silicon photovoltaic industry based on the Delphi method and AHP (analytic hierarchy process): Case study of China

摘要

Crystalline silicon solar cells play a leading role in the photovoltaic market. In order to select the key technologies related to silicon solar cells for the next 5-10 years, a Delphi-AHP (analytic hierarchy process) framework is presented to analyze the potential space for each technology in the solar cell industrial chain. China's silicon photovoltaic industry has been determined as the main research subject. The framework consists of three steps. First, the Delphi method is applied and a technologies list consisting of 43 techniques are determined. In the second step, an analytical hierarchy process model has been conducted and the expert Delphi method has been used to obtain weighted list of values for each technology with the input of over 300 expert questionnaires. In the last step, statistical research is carried out and the ascension interval of the cost, efficiency and energy consumption in the near future is given. Fifteen top key technologies including seven related to the fabrication of cells have been selected, and it was found that the technologies with great potential for cost and energy consumption are mainly distributed at the front-end of the industrial chain, while key technologies for improving efficiency are mainly concentrated at the back-end.