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Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective

机译:地缘政治风险和原油安全:中国观点

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This paper employs the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) to assess the causal relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and crude oil security (COS) for China. In contrast to prior papers, we regard GPR as an independent variable rather than including it in the indicator system and construct oil supply and price channels to better understand how GPR influences Chinese COS. The mixed-frequency data regression provides a new insight that quarterly geopolitical risk threatens Chinese oil security, and a time-varying nexus is discovered in different quarters within a one-year period. Therefore, the Chinese state-owned oil giants should implement diversified strategies such as equity acquisition and oil field investment to ensure a stable crude oil supply. China also needs to construct friendly relations with oil-exporting countries and join United Nations activities such as Somali escorts and peacekeeping in Africa to protect oil production and transportation. The establishment of crude oil futures dominated by the RMB is an effective way to strengthen oil affordability to cope with the oil price volatility caused by geopolitical instabilities. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:本文采用了混合频率向量自动增加(MF-VAR)来评估地际卫生风险(GPR)与中国原油安全之间的因果关系。与先前的论文相比,我们将GPR视为独立变量,而不是在指标体系中包括它,构建石油供应和价格渠道,以更好地了解GPR对中国人的影响如何。混合频率数据回归提供了季度地缘政治的新洞察力风险威胁中国石油安全性,在一年内的不同季度发现了一个时变的Nexus。因此,中国国有石油巨头应实施股票收购和石油场投资等多元化战略,以确保稳定的原油供应。中国还需要与石油出口国建造友好关系,加入联合国活动,如索马里护送和非洲维持和平,以保护石油生产和运输。由人民币主导的原油期货的建立是加强石油价格应对由地缘政治威胁引起的油价波动的有效途径。 (c)2020 elestvier有限公司保留所有权利。

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