Global sensitivity analysis for assessing the economic feasibility of renewable energy systems for an off-grid electrified city

摘要

This study aims to develop a global cost map to provide comprehensive understanding and practices for the preliminary assessment and implementation of renewable energy source (RES) based energy systems. Using an optimization technique to minimize the system cost, we first assessed technical and economic feasibility of six RES energy systems of three RES types (solar-powered, wind-powered, and solar/wind hybrid) in two cities (Barcelona, Spain and Jeju Island, Korea), Based on the results of the case studies, we then performed the global sensitivity analysis to develop a cost map which is capable of assessing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the design and operation of the RES-based system in a wide range of regions of different RES potentials and demand levels. As a result, the hybrid RES energy system shows the lowest LCOE ($0.11-0.14/kWh) compared to the single source-based energy systems ($0.12-0.26/kWh) because it requires the fewest energy storage systems by offsetting the temporal intermittence of solar and wind availabilities. In addition, it was revealed that the RES technology cost as well as regional RES potentials is critical to determine the LCOE, while the effect of a regional demand level on the LCOE is relatively negligible.