Future electric power technology choices of Brazil: a possible conflict between local pollution and global climate change

摘要

This study aims to identify and discuss the main issues and uncertainties affecting electricity demand and supply in Brazil, and their consequent environmental burdens, over the period to the year 2020. It does so in the framework of two policy scenarios to test economic and environmental policy measures against a business as usual projection, which assumes energy policies existing in Brazil today remain in place and that no new major policies are adopted to reduce energy-related GHG emissions. It provides results from an analysis using a linear programming model that simulated scenarios through changes in emissions fees and caps, costs for technologies (including clean energy supplies) and demand side efficiency, to determine least-cost combinations of power supply technologies that meet projected power demand.