An eclectic approach in energy forecasting: a case of Natural Resources Canada's (NRCan's) oil and gas outlook

摘要

Long-term energy outlooks and forecasting models are assuming an increasingly important role, given the concerns of greenghouse gas emissions, and the current need for analyzing options for meeting the Kyoto Target. The focus of the paper is on oil and gas supply projections. We present useful insights into the complexities of projecting oil and gas supply, develop an analytical framework which explains the approach used by natural resources Canada (NRCan) in preparing oil and gas supply forecasts, solve the oil and gas supply model (OGSM) and give the projections of oil and natural gas supply and demand to the year 2020