Energy demand forecast for mechanized agriculture in rural India

摘要

Though India has done well in agricultural development, the state of Assam in the northeastern region needs special attention for agricultural development to address several socio-economic issues and is a typical example of economically backward rural India. Agricultural development aiming at higher production would require mechanization and supply of sufficient energy is a prerequisite for mechanized agriculture. Rice is the major crop of Assam and the mechanization is at a nascent stage. The energy demand and supply scenarios with reference to some prospective mechanization strategies for rice crop are investigated in this study. Four strategic scenarios of mechanization including a baseline scenario incorporating some proven technologies are designed to assess the energy demands. The result of the analysis indicated that the demand for diesel would increase by more than 200% with an associated decrease in manpower by more than 80% and also 100% reduction of bullock power. The "availability index", which is the ratio of available human workers to its critical demand, indicated insufficiency of required human workers in almost all agro-climatic zones of Assam justifying the need for mechanization. Economic analysis considering the prevailing rate of input commodities also favors agricultural mechanization in Assam.