An investigation of the effect of changes of planning criteria on power system expansion planning with a case study of the Jordanian power system

摘要

Many factors contribute to the planning process of power systems. In the context of expansion planning, focus is paid to selection criteria that enable the optimization of related factors that will result in the best performance. This is described as meeting demand whilst reducing costs and maintaining minimal risk in operation. In this paper, different criteria used in the planning of power system expansion studies are investigated with the objective of identifying their impact on the expansion plan. The results of these criteria on the expansion study of the Jordanian power system are presented. Results show good correspondence to the actual adopted solutions. The spinning reserve is the most influential planning criterion on the overall system expansion cost. This is followed by the peak load changes, and the forced outage rate of the candidate units used for capacity additions to meet future expected demand. Finally, the loss of load expectation and cost of energy not served have the least effect on the overall system expansion cost. These results highlight the importance to be placed on performing sensitivity analyses to determine the most cost effective and acceptable expansion plan of the electric power system. There is a need to continually update the planning criteria to cater for changes and developments in the power system and the economic situation. Finally, the methodology of this study can be generalized to other power systems.