Oil and gas perspectives in the 21st century

摘要

Forty years ago, the world experienced the "first oil shock". Back then the world had just ended a period of strong economic growth in the developed world, with rising US oil imports, and began a period of turbulence in the price of oil and for many national economies. Back then (as now) it was recognised that oil price rises might snuff out economic recovery. Drawing on the names of the scenarios which Shell's planners introduced at that time, we were passing through "The Rapids" and about to enter a "World of Internal Contradictions", in recent years there have again been many indicators of a "World of Internal Contradictions", and with the financial crisis and turbulence in oil markets those of "The Rapids" too. This issue is therefore timely, as many of those earlier challenges are still with us.