Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya

摘要

Kenya's current electricity production is mainly relying on hydro and geothermal resources. Both of these resources are subject to complex dynamics that affect their sustainable utilization. Neither the current power expansion plan for Kenya, nor the existing electricity supply models address such effects. The research question in this paper is: What are the implications of hydro and geothermal resource dynamics for short- and long-term (sustainable) electricity system planning in Kenya? To answer this question a bottom-up system dynamics model representing the most prevalent technologies of Kenya's future electricity system, including the dynamics of geothermal and hydro resource utilization, is developed. The stock-flow system dynamics modelling allows to capture the resources characteristics and the link to electricity production. Due to the stock-like nature of geothermal resource, excessive utilization can lead to production capacity losses. In the case of hydro resources, climate change can reduce their availability significantly. A total of eight scenarios varying in demand size and consideration of resource dynamics are simulated and compared. The results indicate that when geothermal and hydro resource dynamics are considered, higher installed capacity will be required in the long-term to compensate production losses, which in turn leads to a higher electricity generation cost.