Evaluating a light duty vehicle fleet against climate change mitigation targets under different scenarios up to 2050 on a national level

摘要

Transportation sector makes up a big share of every country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The light duty vehicle (LDV) sub-sector, in particular, has experienced a substantial growth in recent years without showing signs of slowing down. Regulations coupled with incentives that make alternate-powertrain vehicles more attractive financially, have become a key policy to keep emissions from this sector in check.This study begins by determining the share of LDV emissions in each of Iran's national and international emission regulation commitments. LDV and population numbers for the country are derived up to 2050. Nine scenarios are defined to substitute the national fleet with optimum cars of alternate powertrains. These fleets are then evaluated against existing targets for each decade up to 2050.The results of this work show that the targets set for the years 2020 and 2030 are rather easy to achieve. While the ones for the years 2040 and 2050 originally set by International Energy Agency and the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are achievable but only with swift and decisive action, mainly focused on a green electricity mix and providing different incentives to newer technologies.