Study on the industrial structure optimization under constraint of energy intensity

摘要

This study establishes a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium framework that integrates energy intensity module to explore the reverse feedback effect of energy intensity control on industry structure. The results indicate that (1) the tightening effect of energy intensity constrains on the Industrial sector is most significant, followed by the Tertiary Industry, with the least impact on Agriculture; (2) when there is no technological progress in the departments, the change of industrial structure is mainly reflected in the sharp decline in the proportion of Industry and the significant increase in the proportion of Tertiary Industry. When technological progress exists in high energy-consumption departments, the tightening effect of energy intensity constraints on the industrial sector will be reduced; when there is technological progress in all departments, the industrial structure will have a smaller change, and the technology progress can alleviate the tightening effect of the energy intensity target on various sectors; (3) under the constraint of energy intensity, the high energy-consuming industry shifts to the Equipment Manufacturing with low energy-consumption and high-added value. The increasing proportion of Tertiary Industry mainly comes from two industries including Wholesale, Retail, Hoteling and Catering, and Transportation, Storage, and Post.