Energy intensity in transition economies: Is there convergence towards the EU average?

摘要

This paper investigates the relationship between the energy intensity in 12 transition countries of Eastern Europe and that in the EU15 countries. The raw data show some evidence of convergence, and a carefully estimated econometric model of lagged adjustment confirms this. The forecast values for energy intensities of transition countries between 2000 and 2020 show significant convergence with the EU levels. On the other hand, actual energy demand levels over the same period show an increasing demand in the countries despite the reductions in energy intensity. Therefore, it will not be feasible to use as a sustainability target a non-increasing level of total energy consumption.