A comparison of implied and realized volatility in the Nordic power forward market

摘要

In this paper we study implied and realized volatility for the Nordic power forward market. We create an implied volatility index with a fixed time to maturity. This index is compared to a realized volatility time series calculated from high-frequency data. The results show that the implied volatility has a positive bias against the realized volatility measure indicating that there is a risk premium imposed by option traders. The results are consistent with previous research in other markets. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.