Identifying characteristic changes in club convergence of China's urban pollution emission: A spatial-temporal feature analysis

摘要

We explore China's pollution emission convergence through theoretical deduction and empirical test using a spatial Green Solow model. First, the extended theoretical analysis results show that an economy will pass the inflec-tion point of Environmental Kuznets Curve when growth rate of pollution reduction technology exceeds that of output, which supports the existence of pollution emission convergence. Secondly, estimation results of a dynamic spatial panel data model show that China's urban pollution emission has convergence properties in which club convergence will come true first. Thirdly, China's low-pollution urban cluster has entered a benign pattern of pollution prevention; the medium-pollution club characterized by pollution transfer shows beggar thy-neighbor effects; while the high-pollution club with a typical positive feedback mechanism of pollution still faces risks of escalating pollution. Hence, the government should pay great attention to pollution prevention of the medium-and high-pollution clubs by strengthening regional coordination and accelerating industrial upgrading, which promotes the shift of pollution prevention from club convergence to absolute convergence and provides an environmental guarantee for high-quality development.(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.