Greenhouse gas emission reduction by means of fuel switching in electricity generation: Addressing the potentials

摘要

Many countries committed themselves in the Kyoto protocol to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Some af these targeted emission reductions could result from a switch from coal-fired to gas-fired electricity generation. The focus in this work lies on Western Europe, with the presence of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). For the switching to occur, several conditions have to be fulfilled. First, an economical incentive must be present, i.e. a sufficientlj high European Union Allowance (EUA) price together with a sufficiently low natural gas price. Second, the physical potential for switching must exist, i.e. at a given load, there must remain enough power plants not running to make switching possible. This paper investigates what possibilities exist for switching coal-fired plants for gas-fired plants, dependent on the load level (the latter condition above). A fixed allowance cost and a variable natural gas price are assumed. The method to address GHG emission reduction potentials is first illustrated in a methodological case. Next, the GHG emission reduction potentials are addressed for several Western European countries together with a relative positioning of their electricity generation. GHG emission reduction potentials are also compared with simulation results. GHG emission reduction potentials tend to be significant. The Netherlands have a very widespread switching zone, so GHG emissior reduction is practically independent of electricity generation. Other counties, like Germany, Spain and Italy could reduce GHG emissions significantly by switching. With an allowance cost following the switch level of a 50% efficient gas-fired plant and a 40% efficient coal-fired plant in the summei season (like in 2005), the global GHG emission reduction (in the electricity generating sector) for the eight modeled zones could amount to 19%.