Two-Echelon Reservoir Inventory Management with Forecast Updates: Perspective from Operations of Multireservoir in Interbasin Water Diversion Projects

摘要

Analizowano model okresowej inwentaryzacji wraz z przewidywaniem nawodnienia w systemie wielu rezerwuarów. Wprowadzono programowanie dynamiczne uwzględniające wewnętrzne relacje między rezerwuarami w dywersyjnych projektach wodnych. Model sprawdzono na przykładzie chińskiego projektu systemu wodnego północ-południe.%We consider a finite-horizon, periodic-review inventory model with inflow forecasting updates following the martingale model of forecast evolution (MMFE) in multiresevoirs. This model introduces a new method of determining an operating policy in which the policy is based on the dynamic programming (DP) model with a physical equation and a recursive equation. It adequately considers the internal relationship among multireservoirs in inter-basin water diversion projects (IBWDP) and calculates the expected benefits from future operation. The stochastic nature of the inflow is taken into account by considering the correlation between the streamflows of each pair of consecutive time intervals based on MMFE. According to interdependence, the probability of transition from a given state or stage to its succeeding ones can be calculated. Finally, to assess the effectiveness of the policies, the model is compared with other model and is applied to the Chinese South-North Water Diversion project.