IHS Markit Sees Slower But Still-Solid Gains in Global GDP Growth Through 2022

摘要

In her IHS Markit World Flash - August 2021, Sara Johnson, executive director, global economics, IHS Markit, offers expert insight into global GDP growth, which IHS forecasts at +5.7% for 2021 despite headwinds from the Delta variant of COVID-19. Her commentary, as well as the Electrical Price Index that IHS Marking provides each month for this publication, is available exclusively to subscribers of Electrical Marketing. Global real GDP reached a new high in the second quarter of 2021, completing a year-long recovery from the COVID-19 recession. Western Europe rebounded from its double-dip recession, while the United States and mainland China sustained robust growth. These gains offset setbacks in India and parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America. While growth momentum is slowing with the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19, the global expansion is moving forward. After a -3.4% decline in 2020, world real GDP is projected to increase +5.7% in 2021 and +4.5% in 2022, led by strong recoveries in consumer spending and business investment. This month's forecast of global growth has been revised downward by -0.1% this year and -0.2% in 2022, mostly owing to a less robust performance in the United States. Global growth will settle to +3.2% in 2023 as pent-up demands are satisfied, and fiscal and monetary stimuli are withdrawn.