IHS Markit Sees Short but Painful Recession for World Economy Ending in 3Q 2020

摘要

All signs point to the second-quarter real GDP plunge in the US and European economies being one for the records -with double-digit quarter-on-quarter declines in the United States, eurozone and United Kingdom. Anticipating that growth will return in the third quarter in the American and European economies, these downturns will still be the worst since the end of World War II. For 2020 as whole, real GDP is projected to fall -8.1% in the US, -8.7% in the eurozone and -12.2% in the UK. Mainland China's record first-quarter nosedive has been followed by a second-quarter rebound, which will lead to annual growth of 0.5%. All this means that global real GDP is projected to decrease -6.% in 2020, more than three times the -1.7% contraction in 2009 during the global financial crisis.