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Application of switched adaptive system to load forecasting

机译:开关自适应系统在负荷预测中的应用

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摘要

In this paper, we propose an approach for next day peak load forecasting for electrical companies. First a nonlinear model for the peak load is proposed taking into account the historical load and the temperature. Based on this model time-varying local models are obtained for some temperature intervals. The peak load forecasting system is constructed based on these local models which parameters are estimated using an on-line recursive algorithm. We remark that in this methodology it is not necessary to know precisely the temperature of the days since the proposed system is based on an interval for the future temperature instead of a number. An application example illustrates the proposed approach.
机译:在本文中,我们提出了一种用于电力公司的次日高峰负荷预测的方法。首先,考虑历史负荷和温度,提出了峰值负荷的非线性模型。基于该模型,获得了一些温度间隔的时变局部模型。基于这些局部模型构建峰值负荷预测系统,这些参数使用在线递归算法进行估计。我们注意到,在这种方法中,由于拟议的系统是基于未来温度的间隔而不是数字,因此不必精确地知道白天的温度。一个应用示例说明了所提出的方法。

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