Flexible Operation Planning Scheme Considering Wind Power Generation Forecasting Uncertainties

摘要

Power system daily operational planning has become a difficult task with increasing wind penetrations into power system due to the variable and uncontrollable natures of wind resources. Although remarkable progress has been made in the development of wind power technology, wind speed prediction error still exists. In order to mitigate the negative effects caused by forecasting errors, several candidate daily operational plans should be scheduled ahead of time, with different wind power output scenarios taken into consideration. The key issue of this research work is to develop flexible operation framework that has the least cost adaption cost on the basis of receding horizon optimization. The selected operation plan may not be the cheapest one for one-time interval, but it takes the lowest cost considering the change process with most updated wind power information. Detailed case studies are performed to verify the feasibility of the proposed flexible operational planning framework.