Who's afraid of Lula?

摘要

Could this be the year in which Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the founding leader of the left-wing Workers' Party (PT), wins Brazil's presidency, at his fourth attempt? The election is not until October. But in the past two months, Mr da Silva has begun to surge ahead in the opinion polls (see chart). His strongest potential opponent, Jose Sena, the candidate of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's centrist Social Democrats, has faltered. Investors have begun to take a Lula victory seriously: Brazil's stockmarkets and the value of its bonds and currency have plunged in recent weeks. Are the worries justified?