A tantalising letter from prison

摘要

If israel were to withdraw from Gaza, what would the Palestinians do? The question is hypothetical. Ariel Sharon, Israel's prime minister, is still struggling to get his government and Likud party to endorse a watered-down version of his plan. As it now stands, his plan envisages a four-stage withdrawal spread over 18 months. Mr Sharon says he intends to uproot all 21 Jewish settlements in Gaza, keeping control only of the border between Gaza and Egypt, and to remove four settlements from the northern bit of the West Bank. Likud's ultra-nationalists say that a retreat would grant a triumph to the Islamist fighters of Hamas no less than that scored by Hizbullah when Israel quit Lebanon unilaterally in May 2000. Are they right? Yes, say most Palestinians, who tell pollsters that Mr Sharon's plan, particularly the evacuation of settlements, is a victory for the fighters. "Most Israeli senior military strategists realise that, post-withdrawal, de facto political control in Gaza will be in the hands of Hamas," says Khalil Shikaki, whose Policy and Research Centre charts opinion in the territories.