Politicians like to promise better times ahead. But these days many are peddling gloom. In her new year's address, Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, predicted that 2012 would be more difficult for the euro zone than 2ou. Nicolas Sarkozy, France's president, spoke of "the year of all risks". Half a world away, Manmohan Singh, India's prime minister, warned Indians not to take fast growth for grante d. In one way this pessimism looks a little overdone. The worst outcomes-a collapse of Europe's single currency or a hard landing in China-are avoidable. The latest crop of statistics, particularly better-than-expected figures on global manufacturing prospects, argue against a sudden slump. America may do a bit better than forecast. The overall effect should be sluggish, not dire: global output may grow by 3%, the slowest since 2009 and well below the average of the past decade.
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