Six months before egypt's revolution in January 2011 this paper suggested that the seemingly most placid of the Arab countries was about to be shaken to its foundations. Even after three decades of stuffy sameness under the continuous rule of Hosni Mubarak, that much seemed obvious. Egypt's very placidity made it easy to spot the converging factors that pointed to impending collapse. Predictions are far more hazardous in times of flux such as now, but European history may offer some lessons. In 1848 the citizens of Sicily rose up to rid their island of a hated tyrant. Having overpowered his troops, they proclaimed a constitution and elected a parliament. This was the first in a succession of uprisings, some 50 in all, that rattled rulers across the continent. The Sicilian republic survived for only 16 months, and within two years all the other revolts were similarly crushed. Only in Denmark did the revolutionaries achieve a measure of success: the king conceded demands for a constitutional monarchy.
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