Should a pension reform be announced? A reply

摘要

Fedotenkov (2016) shows that a reduction in the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) contribution rate leads to larger welfare losses for the first transitional generation if the reform is announced in advance. His analysis is based on expected lifetime utility at the reform announcement date. This note reconsiders the reform from the alternative perspective of implementation date. It argues that an announced reform may be preferable because it raises realized consumption of the first transitional generation in old age. Implications for social welfare evaluations are illustrated with a numerical example. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.