Brexit adds to gloom over long-term growth prospects1

摘要

1. The prospect of continued weak productivity growth and less support from rising labour supply means we are relatively gloomy about medium-term growth prospects. Our forecasts show potential output growth of just 1.6% a year from 2017-2030. This would be well below the average of the decade prior to the financial crisis (2.7%) and in line with our estimate for the 2007 and 2016 period which included the global financial crisis.