Buoyed by Covid‐19 vaccines, we think the pace of global GDP growth in 2021 will be the fastest in over 40 years. But for many it won't feel much like a boom. Instead the global recovery is set to be uneven, dictated by three key themes. ▀ 1. Vaccine winners and losers. We anticipate a sustained relaxation of restrictions in some advanced economies (Aes) around March/April, triggering a mid‐year mini boom. Vaccine rollouts in emerging markets (Ems) will generally be slower, but some, particularly ‘makers’, will benefit from positive spillovers from the AE pickup. While vaccines will inevitably help travel and tourism, the transition may be slow. ▀ 2. Industry will be a bright spot. Near‐term prospects seem favourable as the sector continues to respond to pent‐up demand and rebuilds inventories. But the second half of 2021 may prove tougher as these supports begin to fade, and consumers refocus their spending on services. ▀ Sticking with industry, despite considerable spare capacity, stronger capital spending could provide some upside surprises. The pandemic has accelerated structural shifts that are likely to trigger greater spending by the sectoral winners of 2020, such as distribution. Meanwhile, the trauma of lockdowns may encourage firms to adopt more labour‐saving technologies to limit any future disruption from social distancing. ▀ 3. The growth baton is passing from the public sector to the private. This will mark part of the transition to normal, but it won't be seamless. Past mistakes in rapidly moving to austerity won't be repeated, but policy will be uncoordinated globally and the risk of governments doing too little outweighs the risk of them doing too much.
展开▼
