Recent monthly data suggest that economic activity gained some momentum at end‐2020, with the composite PMI rising for the first time in five months in December amid an improvement in services. This should translate into a milder GDP fall in Q4 than previously expected (−1.9% q/q in our current forecast), leading to a GDP decline of 7.1% in 2020 (versus ‐7.5% expected three months ago).
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