Goodbye grey skies? 2018's global shocks may be fading

摘要

It may be premature to declare the onset of happy days for the global economy, but our trawl through the various drivers of weakness over the last year or so suggests the worst is behind us. Our lengthy list of lifting clouds is led by China, where policy stimulus is showing signs of boosting lending, but there are other sources of optimism too. The eurozone's run of bad luck may be turning, and there are reasons for optimism on trade wars. Plenty of 2018's bad news was interconnected and centred around adverse global financial conditions, US dollar strength and very tough external conditions for EM. These have reversed in Q1 2019 amid receding fears that global inflation is set to surge.