Forward looking dynamics in spatial CGE modelling

摘要

This paper sets up a spatial dynamic CGE framework by combining the optimal growth model of saving and investment under adjustment costs and the spatial CGE model with Dixit-Stiglitz structure in the modern sector. Because of increasing product diversity on the dynamic equilibrium path, the model belongs to the category of semi-endogenous growth models. We overcome the difficulty of existing multiregional models to correctly approximate the infinite horizon equilibrium by employing a theoretically consistent terminal condition. The distinction of goods, factors, firms, and households by location, and the incorporation of trade costs in the model allow to study a variety of issues in regional and transport economics. We describe the model calibration and a tailor-made solution algorithm. The functionality is demonstrated using two illustrative examples.