Potential risks of Tithonia diversifolia in Yunnan Province under climate change

摘要

Yunnan province is known for its extraordinarily rich biodiversity, but this is threatened by invasive species under climate change. In the present study, the current and future potential distribution of an invasive grass-Tithonia diversifolia A. Gray in Yunnan province were predicted by species distribution modeling, under two climate change conditions (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) through to 2050s. In addition, the potential risk of T. diversifolia to the protected areas of Yunnan was examined. Our results showed that the potential distribution areas of T. diversifolia would increase by 12 and 93% by 2050s, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. Yunnan's protected areas are now susceptible to T. diversifolia, and the scope of this plant's effects would continue to expand under climate change. A total of 26 protected areas are currently impacted by T. diversifolia, in a total affected range area of 2,822 km(2), but by 2050s, this is predicted to increase by 23 and 53%, and would lead to one and 13 protected areas newly threatened under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. These results suggest that T. diversifolia would benefit from global warming, we should prevent further global warming. In addition, human disturbance should be reduced and prohibited to protect native plants and forest ecosystem in southern, southeastern and northwestern part of Yunnan.