High-Resolution Seismic Hazard Analysis in a Complex Geological Configuration: The Case of the Sulmona Basin in Central Italy

摘要

This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) in the near field of active earthquake faults, in which determinis-tically computed ground motion scenarios, replacing empirically predicted ground motion values, are introduced. In fact, the databases of most ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) tend to be insufficiently constrained at short distances and data may only partially account for the rupture process, seismic wave propagation and three-dimensional (3-D) complex configurations. Hence, herein, 3-D numerical simulations of a M_w = 6.4 earthquake rupture of the Sulmona fault in Central Italy, are carried out through the spectral element code GeoELSE (f ＜ 2.5 Hz), and the results are introduced in a PSHA, exploiting the capabilities of CRISIS2008 code. The SH results obtained highlight the combined effects of site, basin, and topographic features, and provide a "high-resolution" representation of the hazard in the Sulmona Basin, particularly at long periods. Such representation is expected to be more realistic than those based simply on a GMPE.