WEAK DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS TO SUPPRESS TRADE

摘要

We are keeping our negative view intact for iron ore trade because of weak Chinese demand. However, the impact of this demand on global iron ore trade will be partly counterbalanced by the expected increase in the iron ore supply in Brazil and Australia. In April, despite a fall in Chinese steel prices, the country’s crude steel production reached 72.8 million tonnes – the highest since 1990. However, China’s iron ore imports fell in April because of high domestic iron ore production and a fall in domestic steel consumption. Nonetheless, China’s imports from Brazil, India and South Africa surged relative to April 2016, except Australia, thereby increasing tonne-mile demand.