LIBYAN OUTPUT TO IMPART VOLATILITY TO RATES

摘要

Amid the current bearish scenario, there is some respite for the Aframax market in the form of increasing Libyan production and growing US exports. Although the overcapacity in the tanker market and seasonal weakness in demand will keep freight rates bearish, any recovery in Libyan output will impart volatility. Libya’s oil production surged past the 0.8 mbpd mark for the first time since 2014, boosting demand for Aframaxes on the Med-Europe and Med-Med routes. The prospects for the country’s oil production improved further after the two rival governments in Libya met recently to sketch out a powersharing agreement. Although sustained recovery in production will be difficult without a lasting peace deal, any recovery in the country’s oil output will support tonnage demand for Aframaxes. Rising US crude production and exports are also supporting demand for Aframaxes for reverse lighterage operations. The expected increase in Black Sea loadings, after a reduction in Russian crude exports through the Baltic pipeline system, is also likely to support Aframax deployment into the Mediterranean and Northern Europe. However, the production cut by OPEC and declining output in Venezuela are likely to hurt demand for Aframaxes.