Digital Vs. Analog: Who's Winning, Who's Buying?

摘要

The debate over the digital transition date and how converter subsidies will be financed for non-digital homes at the time of a hard analog shutdown date remains a hot topic. And the vision set forth in the 1997 Balanced Budget Act hasn't come close to being fulfilled. In 1998, there were roughly 241 mil.TV sets in U.S.TV households—with only about 3K of them digital. At end-2OO4, there were 280 mil. sets in U.S. TVHH—roughly 15 mil. digital and 265 mil. analog. Over six years that doesn't mark strong progress toward an all-digital nation. The penetration of digital sets grew to 11.2% at end-2004. By comparison, DVD players, which became available in 1997, penetrated roughly 1.3% of TVHH in 1998 but rocketed to 64.7% in 2004. We anticipate 92.4% HH penetration by 2008. It took almost 13 years for color TV to penetrate more than 10% of TVHH (<). The issue of more analog sets than digital won't persist. We estimate 2010 will be the first year with more digital sets installed in U.S.TVHH than analog— 167 mil. of the 320 mil. But despite the coming digital dominance, that will still leave 137 mil. analog sets in American homes.