Inventories of extreme weather events and impacts: Implications for loss and damage from and adaptation to climate extremes

摘要

Extreme and impactful weather events of the recent past provide a vital but under-utilised data source for understanding present and future climate risks. Extreme event attribution (EEA) enables us to quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on a given event in a way that can be tailored to stakeholder needs, thereby enhancing the potential utility of studying past events. Here we set out a framework for systematically recording key details of high-impact events on a national scale (using the UK and Puerto Rico as examples), combining recent advances in event attribution with the risk framework. These ‘inventories’ inherently provide useful information depending on a user’s interest. For example, as a compilation of the impacts of ACC, we find that in the UK since 2000, at least 1500 excess deaths are directly attributable to human-induced climate change, while in Puerto Rico the increased intensity of Hurricane Maria alone led to the deaths of up to 3670 people. We also explore how inventories form a foundation for further analysis, learning from past events. This involves identifying the most damaging hazards and crucially also vulnerabilities and exposure characteristics over time. To build a risk assessment for heat-related mortality in the UK we focus on a vulnerable group, elderly urban populations, and project changes in the hazard and exposure within the same framework. Without improved preparedness, the risk to this group is likely to increase by ~50% by 2028 and ~150% by 2043. In addition, the framework allows the exploration of the likelihood of otherwise unprecedented events, or 'Black Swans’. Finally, not only does it aid disaster preparedness and adaptation at local and national scales, such inventories also provide a new source of evidence for global stocktakes on adaptation and loss and damage such as mandated by the Paris Climate Agreement.