The spatial diffusion of fertility decline in Egypt (1950–2006)

摘要

While the Egyptian fertility transition has been widely addressed in the literature, few researches have studied the spatial dimension of fertility. Using population census data, the aim of this study is to describe and measure the evolution of the geography of fertility on a subnational scale (qism/markaz), focusing on the period between 1960 and 2006. We assumed that the decline in fertility had spread spatially through Egypt, the spatial diffusion occurring through two traditional mechanisms: contagion and hierarchical diffusion. Our results confirm our hypotheses and highlight the importance of studying the spatial diffusion of the fertility transition. This study is unique for the Egyptian context given the long period and fine territorial scale considered. Our study constitutes an important addition to the existing group of studies on the spatial diffusion of fertility. Finally, it contributes to gaining further insight into a demographic dynamic which is fundamental for the future of Egypt.