Forecasting GDP of Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model

摘要

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an important indicators of a country’s economic growth. To assist in decision making process, this study intends to forecast the GDP for seven years and identify the factors affecting the GDP in context of Bangladesh using the data from World Bank. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is adopted to predict the GDP from 2019 to 2025 and multiple linear regression has been used to explore the factors affecting GDP. Different types of ARIMA (P, I, Q) tested and applied the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model are found as best appropriate for forecasting. Q-Q plot, residuals plot, PACF and ACF graphs of the residuals are drawn for checking model adequacy. From this study, it is observed that GDP trend is steadily improving over years in Bangladesh that will remain expanding in the forthcoming.