Analysis of Hay Demand from Pastoralism Systems on Viability of Hay Production as a Climate Adaptation Strategy in Kajiado County, Kenya

摘要

Hay production is a flagship project under drought risk reduction and climate change adaptation programs in pastoralism livestock systems in Kenya. For decision-makers to plan and evaluate their projects, they need localized data on hay production and supply and to understand what attitudes influence demand for hay by pastoralists. A cost-benefit analysis on 23 hay farms and a questionnaire knowledge, attitude and practice survey on 340 pastoralists in Kajiado Central were undertaken. This study provides the hay production versus hay deficit figures in Kajiado Central County. The study also measures the financial losses livestock keepers incur during drought migration and correlates these losses against livestock keeper’s decision to buy hay for their animals. The study established that the drought in 2017, Kajiado Central County had a 48% hay deficit (2,580,000 hay bales) worth about KES 902 million needed to cover three months of the severest period of the drought. At the same time, hay production and supply were 49,138 grown hay and 3292 purchased hay bales and 6177 bags of commercial feeds and forage. The study also found that 86% of livestock keepers buy hay only when their animals started dying at the severest period of the drought. Hay buying mainly occurs in drought years, and averagely for three months only. From 2005 to 2020, there have been five years of severe drought. Because hay production is a critical climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy for droughts, Kajiado needs to reduce the hay deficit by 67% (average of 2015 & 2017), disaster management planners need to align the hay supply to hay purchasing practices. In addition, decision-makers need to address the low hay supply by tackling the challenges of hay production. Furthermore, disaster management planners could use the study to determine the trigger points to start disaster response for livestock feed.