Modelling the initial epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France

摘要

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has fast spread to over 200 countries and regions worldwide since its outbreak, while in March, Europe became the emerging epicentre. In this study, we aimed to model the epidemic trends and estimate the essential epidemic features of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France at the initial stage. The numbers of daily confirmed cases and total confirmed cases were extracted from the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation reports of WHO. We applied an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to fit the epidemic trend and estimated corresponding epidemic features. The transmission rate estimates were 1.67 (95% credible interval (CrI), 1.64–1.71), 2.83 (2.72–2.85), 1.91 (1.84–1.98), and 1.89 (1.82–1.96) for Italy, Spain, Germany, and France, corresponding to the basic reproduction numbers ( R 0 ) 3.44 (3.35–3.54), 6.25 (5.97–6.55), 4.03 (3.84–4.23), and 4.00 (3.82–4.19), respectively. We found Spain had the lowest ascertainment rate of 0.22 (0.19–0.25), followed by France, Germany, and Italy of 0.45 (0.40–0.50), 0.46 (0.40–0.52), and 0.59 (0.55–0.64). The peaks of daily new confirmed cases would reach on April 16, April 5, April 21, and April 19 for Italy, Spain, Germany, and France if no action was taken by the authorities. Given the high transmissibility and high covertness of COVID-19, strict countermeasures, such as national lockdown and social distancing, were essential to be implemented to reduce the spread of the disease.