Close inspection of the Apply Smart graphics reveals several surprising features. For instance, the probability of successfully entering a residency program for applicants who apply to fewer than 5 to 10 programs is strikingly low—sometimes just 20% to 40%. Given the high cost of not securing a residency position, it is curious that so many candidates would “underapply,” especially since the Electronic Residency Application Service (ERAS) charges a flat rate for the first 10 applications within a specialty.~(7) What type of student would apply to less than 10 programs and accept such a low probability of success? The likely answer is one who is not especially interested in matching to that specialty in the first place.Therefore, a second strategy would be to leverage ERAS data to provide applicants with more informative statistics. The AAMC could do this by focusing not on the number of applications submitted, but on the probability that a given application will result in an interview offer.
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