Econometric approach to modeling the global partnership between the Russian federation and the republic of Belarus in the manufacturing industry

摘要

The working hypothesis of the study is the postulate that the implementation of the global partnership of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus should take place at the level of interregional interactions. The paper proposes the methodological approach and tools for assessing possible interregional interactions between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in the manufacturing industry, as well as investigates the factors influencing this interaction. Data from the official statistical websites of Russia and Belarus for 84 subjects of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus were used to calculate the studied indicators. At the first stage, the spatial distribution of the volume of output in the manufacturing sector of the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus is analyzed in order to assess the possibilities of interaction between these regions in this sector of the economy. When modeling, the Republic of Belarus is considered as a separate region within the Union State. A positive autocorrelation was established between the subjects of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus using Moran’s indices. At the second stage, the influence of economic, infrastructural and institutional factors on the indicator characterizing the degree of possible interaction of the regions of the Russian Federation with the Republic of Belarus in the manufacturing industry was studied. The influence of economic, infrastructural, and institutional factors on this indicator under study was studied using Beta regression. The use of this approach makes it possible to substantiate the priority areas of economic development of territories within the Union State, in particular, to search for centers of attraction of resources and spheres of their influence on the territory. The findings of this paper can be used in the preparation of strategies, programs, and schemes for the placement and development of industries taking into account the potential of a new level of integration of the economies of Russia and Belarus.