Modelling for Hevea brasiliensis and Manihot esculenta plantations responses to climate change in Song Hinh District of Phu Yen province, Vietnam

摘要

The research aimed to evaluate the land potential for annual and perennial agricultural crops in Song Hinh district - Phu Yen province of Vietnam using integration of AHP -GIS technique based on the maximum limitation method of the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) and ecological requirements of planted crops rubber plant and cassava plant ( Hevea brasiliensis and Manihot esculenta ). Twenty social, economic and environmental parameters selected to analyze in the model. The results of the land evaluation showed that the high potential land of rubber plant is likely to increase by 51% by 2065. Meanwhile, the high potential land of cassava plant is likely to increase by 32%. The study used the climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) based on the most up-to-date results of climate models (under the CMIP5 project).