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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of machine learning research >Empirical Priors for Prediction in Sparse High-dimensional Linear Regression
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Empirical Priors for Prediction in Sparse High-dimensional Linear Regression

机译:稀疏高维线性回归预测的经验前提

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摘要

In this paper we adopt the familiar sparse, high-dimensional linear regression model and focus on the important but often overlooked task of prediction. In particular, we consider a new empirical Bayes framework that incorporates data in the prior in two ways: one is to center the prior for the non-zero regression coefficients and the other is to provide some additional regularization. We show that, in certain settings, the asymptotic concentration of the proposed empirical Bayes posterior predictive distribution is very fast, and we establish a Bernstein--von Mises theorem which ensures that the derived empirical Bayes prediction intervals achieve the targeted frequentist coverage probability. The empirical prior has a convenient conjugate form, so posterior computations are relatively simple and fast. Finally, our numerical results demonstrate the proposed method's strong finite-sample performance in terms of prediction accuracy, uncertainty quantification, and computation time compared to existing Bayesian methods.
机译:在本文中,我们采用熟悉的稀疏,高维线性回归模型,专注于重要但经常被忽视的预测任务。特别是,我们考虑一个新的经验贝叶斯框架,其在两种方式中包含数据:一个是在非零回归系数之前驻留,另一个是提供一些额外的正则化。我们表明,在某些设置中,所提出的经验贝叶斯后预测分配的渐近浓度非常快,我们建立了伯尔斯坦 - von误解定理,确保衍生的经验贝叶斯预测间隔实现了目标频率覆盖概率。经验现有的先前具有方便的共轭形式,因此后部计算相对简单且快速。最后,我们的数值结果表明,与现有的贝叶斯方法相比,所提出的方法在预测准确性,不确定量化和计算时间方面的强大有限样本性能。

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