TOPMODEL Hydrometeorological Modeling with Rain Gauge Data Integrated by High-Resolution Satellite Estimates. A Case Study in Muriaé River Basin, Brazil

摘要

This study consists of hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river watershed with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and available stream gauge and rain measurements between 2009 and 2013 for two subbasins, namely Carangola and Patrocínio do Muriaé . The simulations were carried out with the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH) precipitation estimates and rain gauge measurements integrated into CM- ORPH by the Statistical Objective Analysis Scheme (SOAS). TOPMODEL calibration was performed with the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) method with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The best overall results were obtained with CMORPH (NSE ~ 0.6) for both subbasins. The simulations with SOAS resulted in an NSE ~ 0.2. However, in an analysis of days with high- level stages, SOAS simulations resulted in a better hit rate (23%) compared to CMORPH (10%). CMORPH simulations underestimated the flows at the flood periods, which indicates the importance to use multi-sensor precipitation data. The results with TOPMODEL allow an estimate of future discharges, which allows for better planning of a flood warning system and discharge measurement schedule.