Rainfall variability and its effects on growing period and grain yield for rainfed lowland rice under transplanting system in Northeast Thailand

摘要

Rainfall variability in Northeast Thailand during 2000–2015 was examined with objectives to determine any changes in rainfall pattern with time, and to determine its effects on duration of rice growing period and grain yield using a simulation model. Variation in mean annual rainfall over 16?years in 93 locations in the region ranged from over 1,600 to less than 1,200 mm, and the locations were grouped into 4 based on the annual rainfall. The change in annual rainfall, and early, mid and late season rainfall was analysed for the rainfall groups. There was a significant reduction in the amount of early season rainfall during the 16-year period in all groups. However, there was no significant change for annual, and mid and late season rainfall. Simulation study showed that the start of rice growing period (SGP) was delayed with reduced early rainfall during the 16 year period and the end of rice growing period (EGP) was also delayed while there was no significant change for the length of rice growing period (LGP). Simulation results showed that grain yield of KDML105, leading variety in Thailand, tended to increase during the 16 year period, as delayed planting time was optimum for achieving maximum yield in all rainfall groups. With general delay in rainfall season, occurrence of late season drought was predicted to be reduced and this helped to increase simulated grain yield. However, adaptation to changing rainfall pattern needs to be planned in advance to maximize its effect.