Effect of Built Environment Factors on Pedestrian Safety in Portuguese Urban Areas

摘要

This paper identifies and analyzes variables that influence pedestrian safety based on the definition of models of pedestrian crash frequency for urban areas in Portugal. It considers three groups of explanatory variables, namely: (i) built environment; (ii) pedestrian infrastructure, and (iii) road infrastructure, as well as exposure variables combining pedestrian and vehicular traffic volumes. Data on the 16 variables considered were gathered from locations in the counties of Braga and Guimar?es. The inclusion of pedestrian infrastructure variables in studies of this type is an innovation that allows for measuring the impacts of the dimensions recommended for this type of infrastructure and assessing the implementation of policies to support the mobility of vulnerable users, especially pedestrians. Examples of such variables are unobstructed space for pedestrian mobility and the recommendable distance separating regulated crossings. Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial Regression Models (ZTNB) and Generalized Estimation Equations (GEE) are used to develop crash prediction models. Results show that in addition to the variables identified in similar studies such as carriageway width, other statistically significant variables like longitudinal slope and distance between crosswalks have a negative influence on pedestrian safety. On-street parking places, one-way streets, and the existence of raised medians have an opposite contribution to safety.