Attribution Identification of Runoff Variation in Kuye River Based on Budyko’s Theory of Water and Heat Balance

摘要

Quantitative analysis of the causes of runoff changes in the basin can make us better use of water and soil resources. The Mann Kendall, Pettitt mutation point test and cumulative anomaly curve methods were used to process the meteorological data in the Kuye River basin from 1971 to 2016. Based on Budyko water and heat balance theory, the attribution of runoff change in Kuye River was identified, and the contribution rate of meteorological factors and active factors to runoff change was obtained. The results show that: rainfall and potential evaporation are not significantly increased, runoff is significantly decreased, and the contribution rate of human factors to runoff reduction is 98%. In human activities, through the change of land use type map, it can be seen that a large number of coal mining, returning farmland to forest and grassland, and urban and rural residents’ water use led to a sharp decrease in runoff.